Can the Jamaica Stock Exchange bounce back?

The Analysts of Taking Stock with Kalilah Reynolds say that while the Jamaica Stock Exchange’s performance over the last three years has been patchy several stocks have still managed to shine.

Corporate Manager at JMMB, Leovaughni Dillon, explained that while the headline numbers paint a bleak picture, some individual stocks have stood out. 

“On the surface, the market hasn’t done that well. But when you look under the surface, there are names like Carreras and Caribbean Cement that have delivered strong returns for investors. Carreras, for example, was up over 80% in the last year alone,” he said.

The last strong year for the market was back in 2019, when the combined index rose by more than 30%. Since then, growth has been patchy at best, with only small gains in 2021 and again in 2024.

For companies like Carreras and Carib Cement, dividend payments have been a key reason why certain companies have managed to shine despite weak market sentiment. 

Carreras is one of the biggest dividend payers, offering yields of around 8% in some years, while firms like Scotia Group and Caribbean Cement have also rewarded long-term holders with steady or growing payouts. 

Dillon noted that reinvesting dividends during flat market periods can help investors build larger positions, putting them in a better spot when prices eventually rebound.

Still, the broader market has not yet recovered from the economic shock of the COVID-19 pandemic. Investor confidence remains low, and higher interest rates over the past three years have dampened demand for equities. Dillon explained that this shift is clear when looking at valuations: before the pandemic, many financial firms traded at two to three times their book value, while today some are closer to half of book value.

He said that lower interest rates, stronger company profits, and larger dividend payments could help restore momentum. 

While the Bank of Jamaica has recently started trimming its policy rate from the peak of 7%, Dillon said it will take more than a few small cuts to reignite the market. 

“It’s going to take a sustained path of rate cuts and stronger company earnings to really get things going,” he said.