Global ratings agency Fitch Ratings has reaffirmed Jamaica’s sovereign credit rating at BB- with a stable outlook, a signal that the country has not lost ground despite the economic shock from Hurricane Melissa.

The decision keeps Jamaica three notches below the coveted “BBB” investment grade territory. But in the current climate, stability counts for something.

Speaking on Taking Stock with Kalilah Reynolds,  Assistant Vice President at Sagicor Investments, Jodian Aris said the move is a signal that it’s not all negative.

“When you consider the gains we have made as a country so far to get to a BB-, it’s still noteworthy of the work that we’ve put in,” she said.

Fitch had already revised Jamaica’s outlook from positive to stable in November, shortly after the hurricane. February’s update simply maintains that position. It could have been worse. A downgrade to a negative outlook would have signalled deeper concern about fiscal slippage or prolonged economic weakness.

Instead, the agency is projecting a 1.5% contraction in 2025, broadly in line with local estimates, as the full effects of Melissa weigh on growth. Even more sobering, Fitch now expects a 2.6% contraction in 2026, reversing an earlier projection of 1.8% growth for that year.

Still, Aris said that recovery dynamics are complex. While sectors like tourism may take longer to normalise, others are already ramping up. Agricultural production, for example, is gradually returning, and rebuilding efforts could provide a counterbalance to weaker areas of the economy.

“It’s still early days,” she said, likening economic projections to a 100-metre race. “We’re just out of the blocks. A whole lot can happen before December.”

On the fiscal side, debt-to-GDP is now expected to hover closer to 70%, up from earlier projections of around 68%. Government borrowing to fund recovery efforts, coupled with weaker GDP growth, has pushed the ratio higher. That complicates Jamaica’s path to investment grade.

Before the hurricane, Jamaica had been targeting a debt-to-GDP ratio in the low 60% range by 2027. Aris is sceptical that timeline still holds.

“It’s very unlikely that we’ll be at that 60% target,” she said, pointing to higher debt and softer growth on both sides of the equation.

Can Jamaica reach investment grade in the next 12 to 24 months? Aris believes that may be ambitious, even without the hurricane’s impact. A faster climb would require strong GDP growth and a rapid, sustained decline in debt ratios.