Guyana is doing a lot of the heavy lifting for the Caribbean’s economy. Without them, the rest of us are barely growing. 

So according to the Caribbean Development Bank, the region could see economic growth of about 6.2% in 2026. Sounds strong, right?

But that number is almost entirely being driven by Guyana’s booming oil economy. Without Guyana, the CDB said the expected growth across the rest of the Caribbean drops to just 1.1%. 

In other words, Guyana is doing a lot of heavy lifting.

The country is expected to grow by more than 20% this year, thanks largely to expanding offshore oil production. And that rapid expansion is pushing the region’s overall growth numbers higher, making the Caribbean economy look stronger than it actually is. 

In 2025, economic growth across the Caribbean slowed significantly. While most countries had recovered from the pandemic, the pace of expansion was more moderate than in the years right after COVID-19. 

And many Caribbean economies still heavily depend on tourism, imports and global economic conditions. Countries like Jamaica, Barbados and The Bahamas are also heavily service-based with construction and infrastructure projects helping to drive activity.

The one-two punch of Hurricane Beryl and Melissa, plus the USA’s changing tariff regime seriously impacted those sectors.

But Guyana was the clear outlier.

While most Caribbean economies expanded slowly, Guyana continued its streak of double-digit growth as oil production increased and investment poured into its energy sector. 

That single economy ended up boosting the entire region’s numbers. Now fast forward to 2026, and the outlook looks similar.

The CDB says growth across the region will remain modest this year. Service-based economies are expected to depend heavily on tourism and construction to drive economic activity. 

Commodity-exporting countries, like Guyana, Suriname and Trinidad, could see mixed results depending on global oil prices and production levels.

And then there’s the bigger global picture.

Small Caribbean economies are still vulnerable to things like global inflation, shifting commodity prices and geopolitical tensions. Now there’s this conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, which can quickly slow growth in tourism-dependent countries.

So while the Caribbean economy might look healthy on paper, the reality is more complicated.

And that’s the bottom line.