So oil might actually be in Jamaica!

United Oil and Gas says it has detected hydrocarbons butane and pentane in seabed samples from the Walton-Morant basin.  

According to United, these hydrocarbons are typically linked to oil-generating systems. That’s big news, because it is the first physical proof that there might actually be oil here. 

The company also said that other data, including 3D seismic, seabed mapping, and satellite analysis are all pointing to the same conclusion – it looks like there’s an active petroleum system offshore Jamaica.

The Walton-Morant basin is about 22,000 square kilometres along Jamaica’s southern coastline.  United Oil and Gas has been exploring the basin for months. The seabed survey, which they did earlier this year, already revealed the presence of hydrocarbons.

With the new developments, United said Jamaica’s chances of finding oil have improved from one-in-four to about one-in-three. Those are pretty decent odds.

But there’s still potentially a lot at stake. Early estimates suggest the basin could hold billions of barrels of oil.  But again, that’s only an estimate.  This would only be proven when drilling takes place.

Energy Minister Daryl Vaz said that while the findings are encouraging, Jamaica is still in the early exploration phase. What’s been found so far are traces of hydrocarbons – NOT confirmed, commercially viable oil.

To get to that stage, the country would need to start drilling, and that won’t be cheap. One well could cost between US$60 and US$80 million. And we’d need multiple wells.

The government and United Oil & Gas have started looking for partners to fund the next phase. And apparently, interest is growing, especially from larger companies that weren’t previously involved.

As for timing, even in a best-case scenario, drilling wouldn’t begin until around 2027 or 2028.

So for now, Jamaica is in that middle ground, there’s some good data …but the oil itself still isn’t confirmed.

And that’s the bottom line.