I’ve got good news and bad news about Jamaica’s economy.

First the bad news… Jamaica’s economy shrank by more than 4% in the first three months of the year.

According to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined by4.1% compared with the same period last year. 

The decline was driven by weakness in both the goods-producing and services sectors.

The biggest drag came from industries still feeling the effects of Hurricane Melissa.  Remember Q1 is January to March, just a couple months after the storm.

Agriculture plunged over 18%, as banana, plantain and other crop production remained well below normal levels.

Mining and quarrying fell 23% as alumina and bauxite production declined.

Of course tourism took a big hit.  Accommodation and food services contracted 16%, reflecting hotel closures after the hurricane and a sharp decline in visitor arrivals.

Transport, construction and information and communication also recorded declines.

But there were a few bright spots.

Manufacturing managed to grow 0.6%.  This was helped by stronger cement and paint production as reconstruction efforts continued.

Financial and insurance services also expanded by 3%, supported by higher banking activity and stronger fee income.

Now here’s the part that many headlines are missing, and what I think is the good news.

While the economy was weaker than a year ago, it was actually stronger than the previous quarter when Melissa actually hit.

After adjusting for normal seasonal changes, Jamaica’s economy grew 3.3% between the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026.

Mining rebounded more than 17% from the previous quarter.

Manufacturing grew more than 12%.

Tourism jumped nearly 19%.

And information and communication expanded by almost 12%.

Those numbers suggest the economy is gradually recovering from the disruption caused by Hurricane Melissa, even though it hasn’t yet returned to where it was a year earlier.

So what’s the takeaway?  The economy is still smaller than it was a year ago, but it’s moving in the right direction.

The real question now is whether that recovery can continue through the rest of the year as agriculture rebounds, tourism normalizes and reconstruction activity continues.

And that’s the bottom line.

So what do you think?  Which sector do you think will drive Jamaica’s economic recovery over the rest of this year—tourism, agriculture, manufacturing or something else?