THE ANALYSTS: No surprise to latest unemployment numbers

By Anthony Morgan 

Stakeholders across all industries are being urged to seek out options that can foster greater resilience against shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic.

The call came from one of THE ANALYSTS on Taking Stock with Kalilah Reynolds against the background of the October unemployment figures reported by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN). 

Based on the latest labour force survey, the economy lost over 92,000 jobs compared to October 2019, lifting the unemployment rate to 10.7%. This is a 3.5% increase when compared to the record low 7.2% a year earlier.

The Employed Labour Force as at October 2020 stood at 1,155,800 persons.

Wealth Advisor at Ideal Portfolio Services, Dwayne Taylor said the numbers were not surprising and indicate just how severe the impact of the pandemic has been on the economy. 

He said the steep contraction in the economy last year would have proved that “there was mist on the horizon” where job numbers were concerned.

“What we have to do is look at how we can become more resilient, just like the manufacturing [and distribution] industry which has been resilient, we have to look for mechanisms to try and become COVID proof to try to protect our money and protect the economy,” reasoned Taylor.

Most jobs were lost in the category, “Arts, entertainment, recreation and other services”. Some 36,900 jobs were lost in that sector alone. The entertainment industry, in particular, has been legally shut down for most of 2020, although several unapproved parties continue to take place.  The government is planning to hold a cross ministerial meeting next week on the way forward.

Research and Strategy Analyst at Sagicor Investments, Jodian Aris said she expected this industry to have been the worst hit, especially with it being heavily dependent on the support of patrons. 

“Restrictions on gathering really affected that sector,” she said. “When you lump arts, entertainment and other services, it reflects some of that tourism activity that we’d normally see in terms of froliciking and they also got a big hit. Tourism is captured in two industries, hotels and restaurants as well as attractions which is Other Services,” Aris added.

At the same time, Aris said the figures indicate that things are getting better. She reasoned that while the October unemployment rate was 3.5% more than last year, it was also an improvement on July’s rate which stood at 12.6%.

“That’s good news but still not at record levels. We were just getting used to single digits,” said Aris.

Rounding out the top three industries with the most declines were: Accommodation and Food Service Activities (23,400) and Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles (15,800).

Meanwhile, a separate survey conducted by STATIN in October showed that nearly half of all working Jamaicans, impacted by the pandemic, have had their incomes reinstated to levels before the crisis.

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